Key Takeaways
- 49% of 2025 IPOs are trading below their offering price, including SPACs
- SpaceX shares have dropped 45% from post-IPO highs despite being the largest listing ever
- The IPO market favors companies showing profitability or clear paths to it
Wall Street's IPO comeback isn't delivering what the headlines promised. Of the 203 companies that have debuted on the NYSE or Nasdaq in 2025, roughly 49% are now trading below their offering prices. Strip out SPACs and the picture barely improves: 38 of 76 operating-company IPOs are underwater, according to Stock Analysis.
The disconnect between IPO hype cycles and actual stock performance is widening. While the Dow Jones has gained 7.5% this year and the S&P 500 is up 9%, newly public companies are struggling to hold their valuations once the initial excitement fades.
SpaceX: The biggest IPO ever is down 45%
The most striking example sits at the top of the list. SpaceX, the largest IPO in history, opened at $160.95 per share. It listed at $135. By midday Monday, shares were trading below $123, a 45% drop from post-IPO highs.
Analysts saw this coming. At 107 times sales, SpaceX's valuation left little room for disappointment. Concerns about the company's spending haven't helped. Most analysts still have price targets between $200 and $300, but Keith Snyder of CFRA set a target of just $115 and rated the stock a buy at current levels.
SpaceX isn't even the worst performer. Green Circle Decarbonize Technology has collapsed 88% from its $4 IPO price to 47 cents per share.
Why the IPO market is punishing new listings
The market is still recovering from its worst drought since 2008. After SPAC mania and low interest rates drove record-breaking activity in 2021, rising rates froze IPO activity through 2022 and 2023. The recovery has been selective.
High-profile debuts like Reddit, Astera Labs, and Rubrik have generated attention, but attention doesn't equal sustained performance. The days of going public on growth promises alone appear to be over.
What this means for startups planning to go public
The numbers tell a clear story. Roughly half the companies that went public this year are trading below where they started. That's not a market rewarding ambition. It's a market demanding proof.
For founders and their boards, the implication is straightforward: an IPO is no longer an exit strategy in itself. It's a financing event that the public market will judge harshly if the fundamentals don't support the valuation.
Private valuations set during the 2021 boom continue to haunt companies. Going public at a down round is painful. Staying private while burning cash is also painful. Neither option looks attractive when your last funding round valued the company at 100x revenue.
The SPAC hangover continues
Including SPACs in the IPO count drags down the overall performance figures, but not by much. These blank-check companies, which allowed startups to go public via merger rather than traditional IPO, flooded the market in 2020 and 2021. Most have performed terribly.
The SPAC era taught public market investors to be skeptical of companies that chose the merger route precisely because they couldn't withstand traditional IPO scrutiny. That skepticism now extends to all new listings.
Logicity's Take
For AI product teams eyeing eventual liquidity, these numbers are a reality check. The public markets aren't buying narratives about AI potential. They're buying revenue, margins, and unit economics. Companies like Databricks staying private at $188B valuations suggests the smartest players know the public market math doesn't work yet. If you're building toward an exit, focus on the metrics that survive first-day trading.
The attention gap between IPO day and day 90
Media coverage clusters around the listing date. Roadshow narratives get repeated. Analysts publish targets. Then the caravan moves to the next big debut, and the stock is left to trade on fundamentals alone.
This attention gap explains part of the performance divergence. Companies that listed with strong institutional backing and analyst coverage maintain visibility. Those that went public primarily for the capital raise fade from view and from portfolios.
SpaceX won't fade from view. Elon Musk ensures constant attention. Yet even that attention hasn't supported the stock price. When the largest IPO in history can't hold its gains, smaller companies face an even steeper climb.
Frequently Asked Questions
What percentage of 2025 IPOs are trading below their offering price?
Roughly 49% of all companies that went public in 2025 are trading below their offering prices, including SPACs. Excluding SPACs, 38 of 76 operating-company IPOs are underwater.
How much has SpaceX stock fallen since its IPO?
SpaceX shares have dropped 45% from their post-IPO high. The stock listed at $135, opened at $160.95, and recently traded below $123.
Which 2025 IPO has performed the worst?
Green Circle Decarbonize Technology has fallen 88% from its $4 IPO price to 47 cents per share.
Is the IPO market recovering from the 2022 drought?
Partially. IPO volume dropped about 80% from the 2021 peak to the 2022 trough. The market is reopening selectively, favoring companies that can demonstrate profitability or a clear path to it.
How does 2025 IPO performance compare to broader market returns?
The Dow Jones is up 7.5% and the S&P 500 is up 9% in 2025. Meanwhile, roughly half of newly public companies are trading below their offering prices.
Context on why major AI companies are choosing to stay private rather than face public market scrutiny
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Source: Fast Company / Chris Morris
Huma Shazia
Senior AI & Tech Writer
Produced with AI assistance and reviewed by the Logicity editorial team. Learn more in our Editorial Policy.
