OpenAI IPO Slips to 2027 as Altman Cites Strategic Uncertainty

Key Takeaways

• Sam Altman told staff via Slack to expect an IPO 'within the next year,' shifting the timeline from 2026 to 2027
• OpenAI is projecting $14 billion in annual losses for 2026 due to compute and infrastructure costs
• Rival Anthropic appears set to go public in the coming weeks, potentially beating OpenAI to market

OpenAI's path to Wall Street just got longer. CEO Sam Altman told employees via Slack that he now expects a public offering 'within the next year,' effectively pushing the IPO from 2026 into 2027.

The company had already filed an S-1 prospectus with the SEC. Altman characterized that filing as keeping 'optionality if we want to go sooner.' Translation: the paperwork is ready, but the timing is not.

The slip will surprise observers who expected OpenAI to race Anthropic to the public markets. Anthropic appears set to list in the coming weeks. Getting beat to market by your closest rival is not the position OpenAI wanted to be in.

The Cash Burn Problem

Altman has strategic reasons to wait, even if he won't say them plainly. Anthropic's growth numbers look stronger right now. OpenAI is still burning through cash at an extraordinary rate. Projected annual losses for 2026 hit $14 billion, driven by intensive compute and infrastructure spending.

Going public now risks losing valuation ground. If Anthropic's stock performs well and OpenAI's numbers look weaker by comparison, the trillion-dollar valuation target becomes harder to justify to public market investors.

“The technology and the world may change in surprising ways, and there might be situations where remaining private offers more strategic freedom.”

— Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI

Altman frames the delay around self-improving AI. Progress on recursive systems could push back the IPO because the technology might change everything. This is a convenient argument. It's also not wrong. If OpenAI achieves a genuine breakthrough before going public, it would be negotiating from a much stronger position.

Internal Friction Over Timing

The timeline debate is not just philosophical. CFO Sarah Friar has advocated for a 2027 listing to ensure robust financial controls are in place. Building 'financial maturity' for public market scrutiny takes time, especially for a company with OpenAI's complexity.

“We are building the financial maturity and infrastructure required to operate as a public entity, but this must be done on a timeline that serves the company's long-term mission.”

— Sarah Friar, CFO of OpenAI

Altman himself acknowledged the tension. Massive capital needs for compute infrastructure could speed things up, he said. OpenAI needs money. A lot of it. The question is whether they can get it on better terms by waiting.

Employee Liquidity and New Models

While the public waits, employees get some relief. Altman announced an upcoming stock sale for staff at $687.69 per share. This tender offer provides liquidity ahead of the eventual listing and helps retain talent who might otherwise jump ship for companies with more liquid equity.

On the product side, OpenAI is preparing a new model codenamed 5.6. Research lead Jakub Pachocki calls it a big step up from GPT-5.5, with a possible June release. The timing matters: launching a major new model before an IPO gives OpenAI a fresh story to tell investors.

Anthropic has already set a high bar with its Fable and Mythos 5 releases. OpenAI cannot afford to look like it's falling behind on capability while also losing the race to public markets.

Market Skepticism

Not everyone is convinced the trillion-dollar valuation makes sense. Discussions on Hacker News show heavy skepticism about whether the massive infrastructure burn rate is sustainable once exposed to public market scrutiny.

Public market investors are less forgiving than venture capitalists. They want to see a path to profitability, or at least a credible argument for why losses will shrink over time. OpenAI's current trajectory does not obviously provide that.

On Reddit's r/singularity, the conversation takes a different angle. Many users debate whether an IPO is premature given the current pace of AI breakthroughs. If recursive self-improvement actually works, the company's value proposition changes fundamentally. Why lock in a valuation now if the technology might transform in months?

What Happens Next

Anthropic will likely go first. Its IPO will set expectations for what AI companies are worth in public markets. If Anthropic trades well, OpenAI gets validation for its own ambitions. If Anthropic struggles, OpenAI gets more justification for waiting.

The S-1 is filed. The internal systems are being built. The employee liquidity is flowing. OpenAI is doing everything except actually going public. 'Within the next year' gives them until mid-2027 to figure out if the timing is right.

Frequently Asked Questions

When will OpenAI go public?

CEO Sam Altman told employees to expect an IPO 'within the next year,' suggesting a 2027 timeline rather than the previously expected 2026 debut.

How much money is OpenAI losing?

OpenAI is projecting $14 billion in annual losses for 2026, driven primarily by compute and infrastructure costs required to train and run its AI models.

What is OpenAI's target valuation for its IPO?

OpenAI is reportedly aiming for a high-end valuation target of $1 trillion upon its public listing.

Is Anthropic going public before OpenAI?

Yes, Anthropic appears set to go public in the coming weeks, potentially beating OpenAI to the public markets.

What is OpenAI's current share price for employees?

OpenAI announced an employee tender offer at $687.69 per share, providing liquidity ahead of the eventual public listing.

Source: The Decoder / Matthias Bastian