India Smartphone Shipments to Fall 12% in 2026: CMR Report

Key Takeaways

• India smartphone shipments expected to decline 10-12% in 2026 due to rising DRAM and NAND flash prices
• Vivo leads Q1 2026 with 21% market share, while Samsung, Xiaomi, and Realme saw shipment declines
• Apple grew 6% YoY with iPhone 16 driving 53% of its volumes, showing premium segment resilience

Memory Costs Drive Price Increases

India's smartphone market is headed for a rough 2026. CyberMedia Research (CMR) projects shipments will decline 10-12% this year as rising DRAM and NAND flash memory prices push device costs higher. The result: price-sensitive Indian consumers are simply waiting longer to upgrade.

The trouble started showing up in Q1 2026. Smartphone shipments fell 2% year-on-year as brands were forced to raise prices. For a market where the affordable and mid-range segments drive the bulk of sales, that pricing pressure hits hard.

“Elevated DRAM and NAND prices have raised device costs, squeezing affordability in mass segments, while the premium end remains relatively insulated. At the same time, channel inventory corrections and more value-conscious consumers are extending upgrade cycles.”

— Prabhu Ram, VP-Industry Research Group, CyberMedia Research

Vivo Leads, Samsung and Xiaomi Stumble

Among the top five smartphone brands in India, only Vivo and Oppo managed to grow in Q1 2026. Vivo shipments rose 1% while Oppo jumped 12% year-on-year. The rest of the pack lost ground.

Samsung shipments fell 8%, Xiaomi dropped 7%, and Realme declined 12% compared to Q1 2025. The current market share standings show Vivo at 21%, Samsung at 17%, Oppo at 14%, Xiaomi at 12%, and Realme at 10%.

The biggest losers weren't in the top five. Transsion and OnePlus saw shipments plunge 30% and 28% respectively. That's a steep fall for OnePlus, which has been trying to expand beyond its enthusiast base into mainstream segments.

Apple Defies the Downturn

While the broader market contracted, Apple grew 6% year-on-year and captured 9% market share in Q1 2026. The premium segment, it turns out, doesn't feel memory cost pressures the same way budget phones do.

The iPhone 16 series drove 53% of Apple's volumes during the quarter. The newly launched iPhone 17 series grabbed 28% share. That's a healthy upgrade cycle that suggests Apple's customers are willing to pay premium prices regardless of component cost increases.

Feature Phones Still Falling

The feature phone segment continues its slow decline. Chinese brand itel Mobile leads with 35% market share, though its shipments dropped 26% year-on-year. Lava holds 34% share and HMD (the Nokia licensee) sits at 18%.

Feature phones remain relevant for entry-level users, but the segment is shrinking as smartphone prices at the low end become more accessible. Or at least, they were becoming more accessible before memory costs started climbing.

Chipset Market: MediaTek Dominates, Qualcomm Owns Premium

MediaTek leads India's smartphone chipset market with 48% share overall. The Taiwanese chipmaker powers most budget and mid-range devices sold in India.

Qualcomm's story is different. It dominates the premium segment (phones priced above ₹25,000) with 36% market share. That's where the margins are, and where memory cost increases matter less to buyers.

What's Next for India's Smartphone Market

The 10-12% decline CMR projects for 2026 reflects a mix of problems. Memory costs are squeezing margins. Brands have to raise prices. Consumers are waiting longer between upgrades. Channel partners are correcting inventory after years of aggressive stocking.

The affordable and value-for-money tiers will take the biggest hit. Premium brands like Apple, and premium-focused segments like Qualcomm's chipset business, should weather the storm better. For everyone else, 2026 looks like a year of fighting over a shrinking pie.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why are India smartphone shipments declining in 2026?

Rising DRAM and NAND flash memory prices have increased device costs, forcing brands to raise prices. Price-sensitive Indian consumers are delaying upgrades as a result.

Which smartphone brand leads the Indian market in Q1 2026?

Vivo leads with 21% market share, followed by Samsung at 17%, Oppo at 14%, Xiaomi at 12%, and Realme at 10%.

How is Apple performing in India despite the market decline?

Apple grew 6% year-on-year and reached 9% market share. The premium segment is relatively insulated from memory cost pressures that affect budget phones.

Which smartphone brands had the biggest declines in Q1 2026?

Transsion and OnePlus saw the steepest drops at 30% and 28% respectively. Among top-five brands, Realme fell 12%, Samsung 8%, and Xiaomi 7%.

Which chipset maker leads the Indian smartphone market?

MediaTek leads overall with 48% share. Qualcomm dominates the premium segment (above ₹25,000) with 36% market share.

Source: mint